Joining us now to debate the crypto Markets is Octavio marenzi he's CEO and Founder of opiumas a Management Consultant for consultancy focused on Global Capital markets welcome once more Octavio Thank you a large number Glad to see you so now uh it's in truth An fascinating day we had Bitcoin break Above 23 000 uh we've seen it Rally from About 17 over the last few days it feels What do you suppose is the Catalyst I we We've heard all these rumors about uh Let's say I don't know positive big Players maybe pushing the value up Purposely is that is that one factor That's really occurring or Um is there a pure motive why crypto Particularly Bitcoin uh is rallying at The second Well I imagine I want to see it in phrases Of what the Federal Reserve is doing What charges of curiosity are doing what the Money present is doing uh and what people Have been attempting on the FED is Basically jacked up charges of curiosity about Four and 1 / 4 p.c remaining yr and Seems to be starting to expire of steam A bit in relation to rising curiosity Rates and so some money is starting About the FED is certainly going to Actually Reserve reverse its course and Pivot as they're saying and start to essentially Lower charges of curiosity as soon as extra sometime in
2023 and that is going to be very Favorable for Bitcoin and gold and totally different Assets So I it if in truth we now have the impression Coming up with a gathering in a few days Um and correct now the market is is Probably desirous about oh let's say 25 Basis elements enhance inside the FED funds Rate do you suppose that that's what's Going to happen or are we going to Continue with the 50 basis elements that We have seen I do know you've said that There could also be a doable pivot I Personally I'm gonna I'm gonna disclose My bias I don't suppose that's occurring Anytime rapidly nonetheless nonetheless do you Think that Um do you suppose that they're gonna selection Of go together with Market expectations and and Sort of taper for those who'll their Increases uh to 25 basis elements or will We see uh shock 50. I I I imagine it's pretty positive this Stage we're going to see 25 basis elements Increase the FED officers themselves Sit on the committee have signal this Quite clearly most likely essentially the most hawkish members Are primarily said we're 25 Basis elements so so Market expectations To the extent they really have any Independent expectations are exactly in Line with what the FED itself has said Which isn't any huge shock now I imagine I Agree with you that long run and by
Longer time interval I indicate a few months down the Road they're going to carry on Increasing charges of curiosity that inflation Has ended up being additional stubborn and Higher than they ever thought it should Be and that probably goes to Continue into 2023 so we're going to see More charge of curiosity hikes nonetheless I imagine There is that this rally on the market in Particular in Bitcoin on account of there's a Sense by many Market members that We're going to return to easy money and That is excellent for Bitcoin and actually Good for various asset programs as successfully That's what happens when you would have a Bunch of those that get on the market Who aren't old enough to remember uh you Know days when when fees have been bigger uh Christine sorry Well Bernstein is out with critiques Saying that the present crypto Market Strength is perhaps pushed by a Reversion to indicate values which is a Theory utilized in finance that means Asset prices are more likely to revert to their Long-term indicate for our frequent diploma What do you take into account that Octavio Well I imagine with one factor like Bitcoin Is notably troublesome to say what The indicate diploma it should revert to could Be and what time interval to check out correct So 69 000 69 000 in truth that's exactly the indicate
That we're going to revert to Um so I I don't I I don't know What the indicate reversion actually means Yes at some stage you take a look at what the Actual asset can generate in relation to Cash flows and that is in truth very Very troublesome with Bitcoin and totally different Asset programs like that so I I don't Agree with that hypothesis I suppose you Might make the considerably form of cute Argument that it's worth as so much as a result of the Next particular person is eager to pay for it and That's really what's going to seek out out Where it ends up I imagine that's practically Almost saying the equivalent issue there Um nonetheless no I imagine I imagine Bitcoin in General has been seen as a hedge in opposition to Central banks getting carried away and Printing an extreme amount of money and as they Start to seem like they could be tempted Again the FED officers could return to The printing press and start printing More money as soon as extra uh Bitcoin does successfully And nfts as successfully and totally different points like That moreover doing successfully due to that Because there could also be that not lower than the Possibility that we're going to return To this very simple money So let's switch on to a unique Topic inside the News Signature Bank Will not take care of transactions of a lot much less Than 100 thousand {{dollars}} worth of Crypto for alternate purchasers in accordance To an announcement from alternate massive
Binance uh does that present some Complications inside the commerce Well I indicate it represents issues I imagine for Signature Bank purchasers Who've been using Signature Bank system Signet to get money into crypto Exchanges and and using that to get Their cash into crypto exchanges and Conversion then into Bitcoin on the Exchanges nonetheless unlikely they'll uncover Other strategies to do it nonetheless I imagine it's More reflective of signature Banks private Positioning proper right here understand that their Stock worth has been fully pummeled Over the course of the earlier yr it's Down about 60 and there's no precise motive For that it's actually a reasonably successfully run Bank that's pretty worthwhile 2022 they Just reported their This autumn earnings was Actually really good for them that they'd a Good yr that they'd a superb remaining quarter Maybe a bit down from the third quarter But nonetheless up yr on yr so pretty Impressive outcomes nonetheless they've been Tarnished by being a crypto monetary establishment or at Least being seen as a monetary establishment that Facilitates crypto funds genuinely I'd preserve subsequent to no crypto belongings of any Sort they primarily preserve {{dollars}} and Loans and in some methods merely form of a Traditional monetary establishment that moreover facilitated Payments into crypto exchanges so They've been Keen to distance themselves A bit from this not lower than in relation to
Marketing positioning points like that And I imagine they're cashing in on This to say we don't really like dealing With funds beneath 100 thousand Dollars these pesky retail purchasers they Call us inside the identify center say the place did My money go I despatched fifty {{dollars}} into Binance it didn't arrive can you observe Up observe up with it and so Banks like This are always very wanting to eliminate Those pesky retail purchasers who've very Small balances and actually small Transaction portions and focus additional on The big ones so I imagine they're attempting To kill two birds with one stone one get Rid of those unprofitable purchasers and The totally different give the market the notion That they're shifting away from crypto and Thailand so on that second on that Second uh uh stage do you suppose that They'll be able to do it do you suppose They'll scare off there or not lower than uh Calm down the temporary Sellers and and the Like into saying okay what We're not this or or do you suppose that It's with out finish gonna be pegged as a as a Crypto Bank it was to be honest Something that they've been very vocal About being uh months and months previously When each half was when prices We're at sixty 9 thousand when points Were thrilling they've been they've been additional Than Keen to to say they've been all the New financial system Etc
Uh how the Great have fallen positive I indicate Uh fully when when points have been Going successfully they've been all about crypto Now that they're going badly they're all About doing the opposite nonetheless for those who Really form of select apart their steadiness Sheet it's a reasonably Traditional Bank it Doesn't even have so much crypto publicity If any the least bit the one issue that you simply simply Can say it has is form of what they Refer to as crypto related or linked Deposits so that they're primarily saying a Large amount of our deposits come from People shifting money in and out of crypto Exchanges and so that is what they Basically said we did quite a few enterprise In that space purchased quite a few deposits From these kinds of purchasers nonetheless really It's not a crypto monetary establishment it's a Traditional monetary establishment that primarily Facilitates funds in one of the best ways Traditional Banks do they usually additionally organize A barely less complicated method to do that than Than totally different avid gamers nonetheless by and large if You take apart their steadiness sheet it Looks very very similar to a standard Bank and I imagine their stock worth first Of all went up undeservedly and now has Come down undeservedly and due to this They're attempting to distance themselves From your entire crypto home